The number of Nigerians recognised as refugees abroad increased by 36 per cent between 2020 and 2025, reaching 478,150, even as the number of pending Nigerian asylum claims fell over the same period, according to data from the United Nations refugee agency.
Figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), obtained by Vanguard, show that the number of Nigerians recognised as refugees under the agency’s mandate rose from 352,960 in 2020 to 478,150 in 2025. The increase represents 125,190 additional people seeking refuge outside the country.
The figures indicate a sustained rise in the number of Nigerians living as refugees abroad. The total increased to 383,660 in 2021 and 391,120 in 2022 before reaching 410,308 in 2024. It then rose by about 17 per cent in 2025, marking the sharpest annual increase in the period covered by the report.
According to the data cited in the report, neighbouring countries account for most of the Nigerian refugee population. Niger hosts 258,402 Nigerians, while Cameroon accommodates 127,858 and Chad 22,811. Canada, with 34,125, and Italy, with 22,186, were also listed among the leading destinations.
The figures for Niger, Cameroon and Chad suggest that many Nigerians forced to leave their homes remain within the West and Central African region rather than travelling to distant destinations.
However, the number of Nigerians awaiting decisions on their asylum applications has moved in the opposite direction. UNHCR data show that pending asylum claims declined by 35.6 per cent, from 87,289 in 2020 to 56,176 in 2025.
UNHCR Nigeria explained to Vanguard that the reduction should not be interpreted as evidence that fewer Nigerians are fleeing the country. The number of pending claims can fall when authorities decide or close cases, even if people continue to leave their homes in search of safety.
“The figure falls when claims are decided or closed, not because fewer people are fleeing,” the agency said.
The agency attributed the fall in pending claims partly to a reduction in the number of unresolved cases in the United States. According to the figures reported, pending Nigerian asylum claims in the US dropped from 33,414 in 2020 to 3,033 during the period under review.
On the increase in the refugee population, UNHCR pointed to worsening conflict and insecurity in Nigeria as major reasons people have been forced to leave their homes. It acknowledged that economic hardship makes people more vulnerable but stressed that violence remains a primary driver of forced displacement.
The agency also explained that neighbouring countries generally recognise people fleeing conflict from Nigeria as refugees on a group basis. As a result, such people are recorded as refugees rather than asylum-seekers awaiting individual decisions on their applications.
Beyond Nigerians who have crossed international borders, millions more have been displaced within the country. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that more than 3.6 million Nigerians are internally displaced, many of them uprooted by insecurity and other emergencies.
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The growing refugee population highlights the continuing humanitarian consequences of violence and displacement in Nigeria. It also underscores the importance of addressing the conditions forcing people from their communities while ensuring protection and support for those who seek safety across the country’s borders.
The figures, however, need to be interpreted according to the categories they measure. Refugees, asylum-seekers and internally displaced people are distinct groups, and their numbers cannot be combined without accounting for differences in their legal status and circumstances.
The reported increase in Nigerians recognised as refugees abroad therefore provides an indication of the scale of cross-border displacement, while the reduction in pending asylum claims reflects changes in the number of cases awaiting decisions rather than necessarily a decline in the movement of people seeking protection.
